Pay growth slows to weakest rate since 2020 as job vacancies fall

Total earnings rose 3.7% in the year to August, while employers advertised the fewest roles since 2014 outside the pandemic

Workers’ pay is growing at its slowest rate in almost six years, with total earnings up 3.7% in the three months to August, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The figure measures average weekly earnings including bonuses for June to August 2026. It is down from 3.9% in the previous three-month period. Total pay growth was last this low in August to October 2020, when it stood at 2.8%.

Pay is rising only slightly faster than prices. The ONS adjusts for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH). On that measure, regular pay rose by 0.6% in real terms over the year and total pay by 0.7%. On the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure, real regular pay grew by 0.8%.

Regular pay, which excludes bonuses, also grew by 3.7%. There is a wide gap between the public and private sectors: regular pay rose by 6.3% for public sector workers, against 3% in the private sector. The ONS says the timing of this year’s pay awards is affecting the public sector figure.

David Freeman, deputy director of labour market statistics at the ONS, says: “Regular wage growth remained relatively stable, though total pay – including bonuses – has eased to its lowest rate in nearly six years.”

Vacancies hit lowest level since 2014

The number of job vacancies fell by 21,000 (2.9%) to 691,000 in July to September, compared with the previous three months. Over the year, vacancies were down 37,000 (5.1%). Outside the coronavirus pandemic, vacancies were last this low in July to September 2014, when there were 686,000.

Mr Freeman says: “The number of vacancies has seen its largest fall since the start of the year, concentrated mainly within smaller businesses, which cite increased labour costs as a key factor.”

The number of employees on company payrolls fell by 111,000 (0.4%) in the year to August, according to HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data. An early estimate puts the figure at 30.3 million for September, which is 66,000 fewer than a year earlier.

The Claimant Count, which measures the number of people receiving benefits mainly because they are unemployed, rose on the month and on the year to 1.701 million in September.

The ONS’s survey-based figures moved the other way. Unemployment fell 0.1 percentage points to 4.7% in June to August, and the employment rate rose 0.2 points to 75.3%. The ONS says its Labour Force Survey, which produces these figures, still has quality problems and should not be judged on one quarter’s movement.

Mr Freeman adds: “While the labour market remains broadly flat in 2026, data from the latest quarter shows the employment rate edging up and a small drop in unemployment. The number of workers on payroll remains slightly down over the same period, though data for the most recent month suggests that might be starting to level off.”

Inflation has overtaken private sector pay

The pay figures cover the summer, before the latest rise in prices. Inflation, measured by CPI, rose to 3.5% in September from 3.1% in August, according to ONS figures published on 21 October. Higher motor fuel prices made the largest contribution.

That rate is above the 3% average regular pay growth in the private sector.

A private sector worker on £35,000 who received a 3% rise this year now earns £36,050. Keeping pace with September’s inflation rate would have taken a rise of £1,225, which leaves the worker £175 a year worse off in real terms. A worker who received the 3.7% average across the whole economy is £70 a year ahead.

Anyone going into a pay review this autumn will need a rise of at least 3.5% to stay level with prices.

Rising prices erode savings and investments as well as household budgets. A regulated financial planner can check whether your cash is earning enough to keep pace with inflation, how much you need in an emergency fund and whether money you will not need for several years would be better invested.

Get in touch if you would like to discuss how inflation affects your plans or any other financial matters.

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