Inflation steady at 3% in February – but reflects calm before crisis

Inflation, as measured on the consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation, was reported unchanged at 3% in February 2026 according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The biggest contributor to inflation in February was clothing and footwear (0.6), while falls in alcohol and tobacco (-0.1) was the biggest detractor.

Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS explains the context: “After last month’s slowdown, annual inflation was unchanged.

“This was offset by falls in petrol costs, with prices collected before the start of the conflict in the Middle East and subsequent rise in crude oil prices.

“A fall in the cost of alcoholic drinks due to promotional activity, compared with a rise last year, was also a downward driver, while little change in food prices, again compared with a small rise this time last year, added further downward pressure.”

Pre-crisis figures

As Fitzner mentions, the figures for February are perhaps not a good indicator of the current situation in the UK economy.

The conflagration in the Middle East has had fast-acting effects on the price of petrol and diesel at forecourts and could likely feed through to energy prices in the coming months.

The impact of this won’t be felt immediately as the energy price cap protects households from instant price changes. However, the energy regulator Ofgem adjusts its price cap every three months, with the next announcement due on 27 May 2026.

The Government for its part has so far ruled out any broad-based support for households, unlike during the 2022 energy crisis, instead opting to look at helping households in receipt of benefits.

The effect of the crisis has also been felt in the mortgage market where lenders have been repricing their products upwards, while the Bank of England held its base rate at 3.75% - with an unusual unanimous decision reflecting the uncertainty of the situation.

What is as important as ever here it to not make any rash decisions on the basis of short-term events. Long-term financial success relies on long-term planning, managing risks and ensuring your money has the best possible chance for long-term growth and security.

If you have any doubts, concerns or questions relating to the information in this article, please don’t hesitate to reach out.

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The guidance and/or advice contained within this website is subject to the UK regulatory regime and is therefore primarily targeted at consumers based in the UK. Welby is a trading name of Welby Associates Wealth Management Ltd Company Registered Number NI630504 who is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, FCA register number 697372. The Financial Ombudsman Service is available to sort out individual complaints that clients and financial services businesses aren't able to resolve themselves. To contact the Financial Ombudsman Service please visit www.financial-ombudsman.org.uk

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