You would be forgiven for wondering why Chancellor Rachel Reeves is frantically trying to ramp up investment into UK businesses, after a year in which the FTSE 100 outperformed the equivalent US and European indices.
However, the long term trend, as shown by Morningstar, shows the extent of the problem. Since the start of 2023, the has been only one quarter (October-December 2024) where the flow into UK equity funds has been positive. This means that whilst the opportunities have clearly been there in 2025, overseas and domestic investors have not been investing in UK stocks in a committed way.
Turning the negative sentiment around UK in 2026 is critical to Reeves' survival. For it to happen she will need to rely on support from a few different factors:
1. Further interest rate cuts should be possible as inflation comes under control. The upward pressure on wage growth in recent years shows signs of cooling, which will make prices more stable and interest rate cuts easier.
2. As concerns about an AI bubble persist, investors will continue to look to diversify away from the US. The UK market is trading at a price/earnings ration significantly below US markets, and offers a great opportunity for investors seeking a dividend yield. The UK market is also globally diversified, with the majority of FTSE 100 revenues generated abroad, and with limited exposure to AI compared to the US.
3. Political instability comes at a price. The market will be more comfortable in the expectation that the Spring Statement is unlikely to contain any significant policy changes. Last year's negative news cycle building up to the Autumn Statement was unsettling. Markets are not interested in politics, they are interested in predictability. A leadership challenge to the Prime Minister in 2026 is the sort of bad PR Reeves' needs to avoid to attract more investment.
Not all of this is under the control of the government so fingers will be crossed for favourable conditions in 2026.
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