The removal of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela in early 2026, could be the start of a broader U.S. effort to reshape Latin America’s geoeconomic landscape and curb Russian and Chinese influence in the region.
As with any big political move from President Trump we are often left guessing what the long term plan is, and if there is one. One theory currently gaining traction is that the U.S. is using Venezuela as the springboard for reasserting dominance in Latin America, at the expense of Russia and China. Central America may be next.
Central America's proximity to major shipping routes (Panama Canal, Caribbean Sea, Pacific ports) makes it vital for both legal and illicit trade. Russia already exploits these routes via a “shadow fleet” of aging ships which help move sanctioned oil. Russia also uses Caribbean offshore shell companies to manage an estimated $70 billion in assets, according to the Center for the Study of Democracy.
Meanwhile China has become a rapidly growing economic force in the region, having provided billions of dollars in development loans to Latin America.
China and Russia have reduced US opportunity, and some commentators view Venezuela as a sign that the US want it back.
Stricter policing of shipping in the region may increase reliance on U.S. Gulf Coast refineries to replace the lost oil supply from Russia or Venezuela, and push Russia back as a pivotal oil supplier to the region. It could destabilise Cuba given 60% of Cuba's oil come from Russia and Venezuela, and it would most likely cut into Mexico, Ecuador, and Colombia’s market share.
It might also open the door to other China and Russia dominated sectors such as energy and infrastructure, in countries such as Bolivia, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Peru and Chile.
It is not without risk.
Coercion could push some Latin American governments towards China, rather than away from it. There needs to be a credible commercial incentive for governments to move towards the US. Force alone will not suffice.
Whether this works or if President Trump has the stomach to follow this all the way through remains to be seen. However it is a strategy in line with his avowed policy of re-asserting American dominance in the Western Hemisphere.
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