August rate cut chances rise as employment falls

August rate cut chances rise as employment falls

The Bank of England (BoE) is increasingly likely to cut the base rate despite rising inflation, as employment falls in the UK.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) looks set to cut its base rate again when it meets on 7 August.

Although not guaranteed, the latest employment data will have created rising concerns for MPC members, which includes BoE governor Andrew Bailey.

This is despite a surprise increase in inflation in the most recent Office for National Statistics (ONS) data.

Here’s what you need to know and how it could affect your money.

Inflation

Inflation rose unexpectedly in June – increasing from 3.4% to 3.6% on an annual basis, according to the ONS’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure.

The rise was driven by motor fuel costs and food price inflation which has risen for three months in a row now.

However, the Bank of England has repeatedly forecast that inflation would be stubbornly high thanks to one-off factors such as an increase in the national minimum wage and the Government’s National Insurance hike – both of which took effect in April 2025.

Employment and wages

The ONS’s most recent wage and employment data showed wage growth slowing and unemployment rising.

The official unemployment rate rose to 4.7% in the three months to May – its highest level since June 2021, when the UK was still in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic and associated lockdowns. Pay growth slowed from 5.3% to 5%.

While both these figures showed incremental change on the previous data release, they show a pattern of activity in the economy that indicates a slowdown and weakening in the jobs market.

Bank rate

There is no guarantee whether the MPC will cut its base rate or not in August, but the situation in the jobs market is compelling evidence that the economy might need a boost from lowering rates. Investment markets have increased predictions of a cut on 7 August.

At its last meeting the MPC voted to pause rate cuts to wait and see how events would unfold for the economy. However, while inflation remains persistently above the BoE’s 2% target, there is substantial evidence elsewhere that monetary policy might now be too high for comfort.

Earlier in the month the ONS reported GDP falling, further evidencing the economy’s struggling situation.

Looking at the bigger picture – what does this mean for your finances?

It is important to remember the essentials when managing both your long- and short-term finances in such economic conditions.

Your short-term finances should always look to be shielded from unexpected events, with rainy-day funds a critical tool to aid this. This is salient whether you are still working or retired, especially if your portfolio is invested.

It is important to remember though that markets don’t often move in lockstep with economic news and events. Investing is a long-term process that should transcend what is happening at any given moment in the economy and what happens in the news.

If you have any concerns about what is happening, it is important to consult with a financial planner before making decisions that could affect your long-term plans.

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