Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, delivered on her promise that the Spring Statement would be a fiscal non-event.
It contained no policy changes and very little in the way of good news.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) downgraded the growth forecast for 2026 to 1.1%, down from 1.4% forecast in November 2025. The growth projections now stand at 1.1% in 2026; 1.6% in both 2027 and 2028; and 1.5% in both 2029 and 2030.
The OBR are often pessimistic in their forecasts so it is not unreasonable to expect the predictions to be beaten, but notably they do not include the impact of any increase in oil and energy prices triggered by recent events in Iran and the Middle East. It is too early to know what the consequences to global economies will be.
Unemployment is predicted to rise to a 5.3% peak this year, before falling to 4.1% in 2030. It had already reached 5.2% in the three months to December, which was a five-year high.
The OBR believe inflation will fall faster than previously thought. They expect it to reach 2.3% during 2026 and reach the Bank of England's target of 2% by the start of 2027.
As a result of this and because of tax receipts being ahead of forecast, Reeves' fiscal headroom has increased from £21.7bn to £23.6bn. Welcome news but it remains a fragile buffer. Previous Chancellor's have had a higher margin for error and political turbulence at home and globally can easily eat into that headroom. The chancellor confirmed she's forecast to meet her main borrowing target, in 2029/2030, with over £23bn to spare, but in reality she will need some luck along the way.
As you would expect, the Chancellor insisted that the government has "the right economic plan for our country" and promised that in two weeks time she will set out "three major choices that will determine the course of our economy into the future".