Wage growth slows as payrolled employee numbers edge down

Annual growth in regular earnings across the UK was 3.4% in March to May 2026, with total earnings including bonuses growing 4.3%, according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 21 July.

The gap between public and private sector pay was significant. Public sector regular earnings grew 5.5% over the year, against 2.9% in the private sector. The ONS notes that public sector pay growth continues to be affected by variations in the timing of pay awards this year.

Adjusted for inflation, regular pay grew 0.3% using CPIH and 0.4% using CPI. Total pay grew 1.1% and 1.3% on the same measures. Real pay is still rising, but the margin is thin.

The number of payrolled employees fell by 85,000 (0.3%) between May 2025 and May 2026, though the month-on-month figure was largely unchanged, up 3,000 between April and May.

The early estimate for June puts the total at 30.3 million, down 71,000 on the year. June figures are provisional and likely to be revised.

Commenting on the figures, ONS Director of Economic Statistics Liz McKeown said: “The latest data show a relatively steady labour market picture overall, though some measures continue to suggest softening.

“The number of employees on payroll was broadly flat in the latest month, while survey estimates suggest employment, unemployment and inactivity rates were little changed in the latest quarter. Vacancies fell again over the quarter, but by less than in recent periods.

“The latest decrease was driven mainly by smaller businesses, where labour and operating costs were cited as factors in not taking on new staff. Private sector regular wage growth fell below 3% for the first time since 2020, while public sector wage growth remains elevated, affected by the timing of recent NHS pay awards.”

Pay barely beating inflation

Pay is still ahead of inflation, but only just. Where you work can change the picture considerably. Private sector earnings growing at 2.9% leaves very little headroom once prices are accounted for and a below-inflation pay round next year would erode it entirely.

That matters for anything in your plan that assumes pay keeps rising at the rate it has. Pension contributions set as a percentage of salary grow more slowly when salaries do.

Regular savings and investment amounts fixed some years ago may now represent a smaller share of your income than intended. Where a plan was built on salary increases of 4% or 5%, a run of years closer to 3% compounds into a meaningful shortfall by retirement.

Falling vacancies and a lower payrolled headcount are also worth noting if you were counting on a job move to lift your income, or if job security feeds into how much cash you want to hold.

None of this demands immediate action. But if you are unsure what these figures mean for your long-term finances, get in touch to talk it through.

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